The Spreadsheet: The Mid-Season WFTDA Playoff Cut Off Watch
The best thing about the new Playoff structure is that the Playoff cut offs went from 2 to 5, with each cut off having its own unique and interesting narratives. Although some are yet to play, like 3 of the top 4, there has been a lot of movement around all of the other cut offs. Here is our run down on where things stand as we lead into Big O/Toques weekend.
**Numbers are based off of our own projections and will vary from final WFTDA numbers.
The Top 4 (Bye to Champs)
VRDL’s lead is sizeable with a 200+ cushion over Rose. They aren’t playing each other at Big O, Rose declined, but regardless of the results of the weekend VRDL should leave with lots of breathing room. Rose isn’t really in a position to chase, but Gotham is only 90+ out and beyond just gelling with some new skaters and a new Coach, they will be looking to keep their position on lockdown. Gotham will get a later start, not playing Jacksonville until the 12 of May, and barring any major collapse or hot start they should end in 3rd as they begin. Angel City went over their average at their Tinseltown Showdown and they will need more results like that to ward off Denver, Texas and Arch Rival, all of which are within 75 avg striking distance. Denver looks like the most serious contender, but a tough schedule at the Big O of VRDL and Rose to start might put them in a hole by the time they meet Angel City. Expect those 4–7 teams to consistently be crunching those WFTDA scores on the sidelines.
D1 Playoff (5–28)
40 teams used to make D1 Playoffs, then 36 and now 24. As those invites decreased, the number of leagues have skyrocketed. Making D1 Playoffs has always carried a level of prestige, but this year it means more then ever and a couple bad scores can cost a good team an invite. Ann Arbor holds down the final spot as we enter May with a 480 average, but their Playoff carrying average (what they will carry to June 30th) drops to 474. With 2 months to go I’d expect that 28 cut off to grow and Sacramento is sitting on a 521 playoff carrying average which would bump the cut off average to the low 500’s. Dallas (508), Naptown (484), Mad Rollin’ (484) and Boston (481) have the best shot, but the only way a team is going to emerge from that log jammed grouping is if they can string together multiple 550+ results over the close of their season. Those with more bouts on have more work to do, and a lot will come down to the weights accessible to them in their schedules along with a bit of luck.
North America Cup East (Top 12 in Region Beyond 28)
Team United’s 195–111 victory over No Coast on April 21st has catapulted them back in NA East Cup position and established 58th Dub City as the current cut off at 343. Royal City, who missed the 2017 D2 Playoff by 5 spots, sit just behind Dub City at 341 for now, but this cut off will be very volatile top and bottom. 25th–28th are North America East teams, which means if any of them drop and are bumped from a team outside the region, then the averages and positions will bump up as well. Also, many teams currently near bottom seeds are trending down, with United (333), Charm (332), OKVD (340), Dub City (338) and even Royal (338) with playoff carrying averages below the current cut off. There are a handful of teams who have a shot at rising to this cut off too — Long Island is making a run with a carrying average of 356 after a solid win over Ithaca, Gem City is still in striking distance at 332 after under performing at KTown and Toronto still has some dark horse potential at 322. Some teams who haven’t played yet also should be on a watch list, namely Winnipeg and the merged Ottawa Valley team. With so many of these teams meeting at Put Up Your Toques this weekend in Kitchener-Waterloo, or Royal Brawl later in the month in Guelph, you can expect some of these positions to solidify by the end of the month. Another question mark will be the performance of Sailor City during their first US tour later in the season and whether or not they are planning for two trips this year if they secure a Playoff invite.
North American Cup West (Top 12 in Region Beyond 28)
The NA West region looks to be the more competitive region mid way through the year. Sacramento and Dallas are best positioned to move above the D1 cut off and their current cut off average for the region is 355, +12 over the East. Fewer Western teams are in free fall as well, although there are question marks — like when are Wasatch and Treasure Valley going to play a sanctioned game? No Coast is the closest challenger with a 343 carrying average and Happy Valley is not far behind at 342. Boulder County could potentially challenge for a spot, but their schedule is a question mark as well. Travel for some of these regionally isolated Western teams makes this situation a bit tricker. Without tournament play, some solid teams may miss the cut off just off the basis of their schedule and access to weights.
Europe Cup (Top 8 in Region Beyond 28)
The most exciting thing about a return to regional playoffs is the creation of the European Cup. Perennially under ranked European teams, who could not make Playoff cut offs because they all play each other, now have something to work towards and the travel costs won’t bankrupt them. Those unfamiliar with the European game may gasp at the averages for the cut off — currently at 307 — but anyone who has watched under ranked European teams slaughter North American teams in tournament play knows these are competitive and deserving teams who would beat North American teams if given the chance. Gothenburg and Newcastle are riding outlier scores from games against a rebuilding Nidaros squad and access to their weights or Leeds weight, after their strength factor challenge against Birmingham, will have a huge knock on effect on the cut off. Gothenburg and Central City are within striking distance but need more games to qualify and Central City’s June game against Lille will be tough to pull a big score on. They will need a good result against Steel City at EuroClash. Tiger Bay still has a shot at the cut off with a game against Leeds and their SFC weight of 2 along with 2 EuroClash games against Steel City and Newcastle, but they will need to make every singe jam count. The Europeans have all been flexing their calculators, spreadsheets and schedules and with so much volatility introduced with SFC weights and outlier scores alongside so few games, the top 8 might include teams beaten by those looking on from the outside. DRAMA!!!!
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